Background Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is a recognised outcome in patients with myocardial infarction, although heart failure with reduced ejection fraction is more common. Identifying early indicators specific to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in patients with myocardial infarction could support targeted preventive strategies. This study aimed to determine if pulse pressure and aortic valve peak velocity could serve as early predictors of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in patients with myocardial infarction.

Methods We retrospectively analysed data from 5188 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study who were free from heart failure at baseline, including 802 individuals with a history of myocardial infarction. Heart failure events were classified as either heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50%) or heart failure with mildly reduced or reduced ejection fraction (left ventricular ejection fraction <50%). Competing risk regression models were used to examine associations of baseline pulse pressure and aortic valve peak velocity with heart failure subtypes.

Results Over 6 years of follow-up, 217 cases of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (including 50 in patients with myocardial infarction) and 127 cases of heart failure with mildly reduced or reduced ejection fraction (33 in patients with myocardial infarction) were identified. Among patients with myocardial infarction, a 1-SD increase in pulse pressure was associated with a 1.60-fold higher risk of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (95% CI 1.30 to 1.97), and a similar association was observed for aortic valve peak velocity (HR: 1.37, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.58). Patients with pulse pressure ≥68 mm Hg had a 3.83-fold higher risk of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction compared with those with lower pulse pressure, and those with aortic valve peak velocity ≥1.4 m/s had a 2.10-fold higher risk compared with those with lower values. Patients with myocardial infarction with two or more risk factors among elevated pulse pressure, aortic valve peak velocity, diabetes and atrial fibrillation had over 16 times the risk of developing heart failure with preserved ejection fraction compared with those without these risk factors (p<0.001).

Conclusions Pulse pressure and aortic valve peak velocity are significant predictors of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in patients with myocardial infarction, suggesting their potential value in early risk stratification. These findings support the use of these markers to guide timely interventions aimed at preventing the progression to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.